Investigating earthquake risk models and uncertainty in probabilistic seismic risk analyses

The EQRM is Geoscience Australia's tool for conducting probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments. In this report we summarise the sensitivity of EQRM risk estimates to a range of input parameters. The importance of aleatory uncertainity is explored separately for the following components of the EQRM: synthetic earthquake catalogue generation, attenuation, regolith amplification and damage modelling. Different sampling techniques are analysed for incorporating aleatory uncertainty. Event and hazard based approaches to risk estimation are compared. Finally, we demonstrate the impact of using different attenuation models on risk estimates.